January 2008 - Free The Memes

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January 2008

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12:27pm Saturday January 12, 2008 (link)

So my California Democratic Primary ballot arrived. It's still a month almost to the election, but I marked it for Obama and sent it in early.

It's not that I think his policies are great. I don't actually think there's much of a difference between him and Hillary Clinton. Both are ridiculously overreaching. Even with a Democratic Congress, they won't get a tenth of what they are promising passed. And as a Libertarian, I think that's a good thing! Most of the things they want are either wrong-headed, or things the government has no business doing.

On top of that, I expect the economy to stink by election day, and I'd be surprised if Iraq stays calm for the next four years. Even if neither of them tries to draw down forces there. If we do withdraw, anything could happen. And by 2012 or so, I expect baby boomer retirements to start obviously inflating Social Security and Medicare costs. That issue will become serious far faster than most people expect. So whatever they think their agenda is, I expect the next President to be at the mercy of events.

As for personality, it's true that Hillary seems to be more highly strung, more self-absorbed, and readier to demonize her opponents. Obama seems more relaxed and above the fray. The thing to remember though is that normal people don't run for President. First, you have to think you are up to the job. Given the state of the world, and the challenges facing the country, that's delusional.

Second, you have to think you deserve it. You should be the head of the armed forces with your finger on the button. You should control the executive branch, which eats up 20% of the economy. You should appoint Supreme Court justices. Etc. In other words, you'd have to be full of yourself.

Lastly, you need the temperament to get through the election process. For the better part of two years, you have to give speeches to all kinds of groups about how wonderful you and your policies are. I couldn't do that even once, let alone dozens of times! I'd start laughing and gagging over the words after a few times. The kind of person who can do that must just love the sound of their own voice. Or be able to detach themselves from their words and actions beyond what even actors and other celebrities do. Again, you'd have to be a strange sort of person.

You also have to lie a lot. There are too many one-issue groups that want you to agree with them before they will support you. You can't even run a real race in farm states like Iowa without supporting farm subsidies and ethanol subsidies. Both parties are just collections of interest groups that have to be satisfied. I don't see how you can get through that with any integrity.

In fact, I think the problem with some candidates, like Mitt Romney or Al Gore back in 2000, is that they get cynical about the whole process. They start running the whole campaign by polling for the "correct" response on each issue. I imagine them thinking "the public doesn't want to hear a thoughtful response. So just tell them what they do want to hear. Get elected, then you can do some good." Unfortunately, people eventually detect that lack of enthusiasm, or lack of consistency. You get branded a "flip flopper" or as "wooden." Or just cynical.

So I don't think either Hillary or Obama are normal people who can be taken at their word, or evaluated in the normal way. I don't take their agenda seriously. What's left to decide between them?

Like a lot of people, I'm dismayed at the idea of Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton. There are a lot of talented people in this country. We don't need to keep electing the same families to office! Also, if Hillary is running on her experience as "co-president", then she's had her 8 years in the White House. Bill certainly has, and there's always going to be the suspicion that he'll be running at least some things behind the scenes. On the other hand, if Bill is really out of there, and Hillary is running on her one term in the Senate and experience as First Lady, then I don't think she's particularly qualified. Of course, neither is Obama.

So finally it comes down to the problem that Hillary has had all along, which is that she's polarizing. If she has to take strong measures on the economy, or pull out of Iraq, she'll get nothing but bitter opposition from the Republicans. Obama may not be any better, but he could hardly be worse. Not much of a recommendation, but it's all I can come up with.