The 2008 Election

The rearranged primary schedule means it's all over when California votes in early Feb. The state has so much clout, the rest of the country would have to swing behind a different candidate to pull it away from whoever wins in California. Unlikely.

This means the primary season is nearly over now. We have Sept, Oct, Nov, Dec for a candidate to raise $100 million, get out there and make an impression. Current money totals and poll results are going to be very hard to turn around. Nov/Dec are lost because of the holidays. People won't focus on any of this until January, then it will be too late. I don't see another major candidate getting into this race. Time is nearly up even for Thompson.

People hate Hillary, but on paper, she's the ideal candidate. She's a white southern lawyer who has been in politics forever. She's had 8 years in the White House. She's got Bill in the wings if she needs any help. The Democrats want to show they are idealistic, not like the horrible cold Republicans. Every aging boomer Democrat would pat themselves on the back for electing the first woman president.

Even the Republican pundits are admitting they could do worse. On healthcare, she's going to be cautious, since she was burned so badly the first time. In any case, everyone on both sides wants to "do something" about health care. [This has already been overtaken by events! Still, RomneyCare in Mass paved the way for her current program, and it's not being sold as any kind of radical revamp of the system.] On defense, she's the hawkish Democrat. She has access to the Clinton network of advisors, so she'll be experienced. She's such a die-hard politician, she's always going to have her finger to the wind, and not do anything radical. She's been solid as a senator.

Her only real negatives are 1) her personality, 2) Bill hanging around -- why didn't she divorce him, and is he really going to be "first husband" or is this another "co-presidency", and 3) Bush/Clinton/Bush/Clinton, yikes! Surprisingly, her being female is not a negative at all. We really are ready for a female president, I think.

Obama could have taken it away from her, but is looking like an empty suit lately. We're tired of "hope" and nothing else. He'll have to get hugely better in the next three months to win it.

Edwards is just too much of the same. The party is not going to skip over the chance to elect a woman or a black and go for some blow-dried lawyer who sheds crocodile tears over the poor.

You are right that hard economic times next year will dominate the discussion. The Dems will all "feel our pain" and promise bailouts, with varying degrees of conviction. The Republicans will downplay it and do "the economy is basically sound." What else can they do besides badmouth yet another part of the system that they are seen as standing for? Can you imagine Romney or Guiliani badmouthing Wall Street? If the Iraq war is a mess still, or Iran is trouble, or N. Korea is trouble, or Afghanistan is trouble, they have no chance. Two dismal failures, both foreign policy and economics, and they can't really propose much different. All the leading Republicans are hawks.

Ron Paul has nothing to offer in times of trouble. He's a crotchety old crank who wants a gold standard (and I say this as a Libertarian myself!) Without giving up every shred of his beliefs, he can't offer a bailout. All he can do is blame the current system for all our problems. A lot of people will listen to that, but not enough to push him into serious contention. People are going to be screaming "I'm losing my house to foreclosure!" and his only answer is "Well, they shouldn't have loaned you the money." That's not going to fly.

So by March we will have our two major candidates, and we'll be sick of them soon after. Neither will look like a solution for hard times. A third party has a real chance if it can get it's act together. Unfortunately, you still need organization. You need to get on the ballots and select a decent candidate. The only ones already on the ballot are the Green Party, old Perot Reform Party and the Libertarian Party. I don't think any is on the ballot in all 50 states, or has a candidate at this point (nothing on the web sites.) So it's pretty much too late for them. Most states make it really hard to qualify for the ballot. And if by some miracle they did field a candidate and win the popular vote, what about the Electoral College? How could a third party possibly win there?

I predict a close election due to the number of people who just sit it out. I don't think any of the leading Republicans can motivate the base. Hillary will win by default if she just shuts up for most of next summer, and blames the Republicans for the current mess overseas and in the markets. If she keeps looking calm in debates, she'll be seen as the safe choice in difficult times. And after all, a "likeable" woman would have been seen as too soft to win. It would only take a slight change in perceptions to turn "unlikeable" into "tough." One good speech at the right time could do it.

Of course, after the election, she'll actually have to do something about all this crap. She'll probably wish she'd stayed in New York.

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